- Introduction
- Background of the “collapse in 2030” discourse
- Why this issue matters for Indonesia and the global community
- Research objectives
- The Origin of the Collapse Narrative
- The role of political figures (e.g., Prabowo Subianto’s statement)
- International predictions and think-tank reports
- Historical precedents of disintegration fears
- Political and Institutional Challenges
- Weaknesses in governance
- Corruption and institutional decay
- Risks of separatism and regional disparity
- Economic Vulnerabilities
- Structural inequality
- Overdependence on natural resources
- Risks of technological and industrial lag
- Social and Demographic Pressures
- Demographic bonus: opportunity or threat?
- Rising identity politics and polarization
- Education and human capital challenges
- Global and Environmental Factors
- Climate change and environmental degradation
- Global geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia
- The impact of globalization and digital disruption
- Possible Futures Toward 2030
- Collapse scenario
- Stagnation scenario
- Resilience and renewal scenario
- Preventive Strategies and Policy Recommendations
- Institutional reforms
- Sustainable and inclusive development
- Building social cohesion and national identity
- Strengthening regional and global diplomacy
- Conclusion
- Summary of risks and opportunities
- Reframing “Indonesia on the brink of collapse” as a constructive warning
- Final reflections for policymakers and scholars
One reply on “Indonesia on the Brink of Collapse in 2030”